Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common.</p

Hybridization in parasites: consequences for adaptive evolution, pathogenesis and public health in a changing world

[No abstract available

Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha G308α Gene Polymorphism and Essential Hypertension: A Meta-Analysis Involving 2244 Participants

BACKGROUND: The tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα) G308A gene polymorphism has been implicated in susceptibility to essential hypertension (EH), but study results are still controversial. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: The present meta-analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between the TNFα G308A gene polymorphism and EH. Electronic databases were searched and seven separate studies on the association of the TNF α G308A gene polymorphism with EH were analyzed. The meta-analysis involved 1092 EH patients and 1152 controls. The pooled odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated by a fixed or random effect model. RESULTS: A significant relationship between the TNFα G308A gene polymorphism and EH was found in an allelic genetic model (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.80, P = 0.0008), a recessive genetic model (OR: 3.181, 95% CI: 1.204 to 8.408, P = 0.02), and a homozygote model (OR: 3.454, 95% CI: 1.286 to 9.278, P = 0.014). No significant association between them was detected in both a dominant genetic model (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 0.99 to 2.42, P = 0.06) or a heterozygote genetic model (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 0.90 to 2.33, P = 0.13). CONCLUSION: The TNFα G308A gene polymorphism is associated with EH susceptibility

Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data

Given the unique institutional regulations in the Chinese commodity futures market as well as the characteristics of the data it generates, we utilize contracts with three months to delivery, the most liquid contract series, to systematically explore volatility forecasting for aluminum, copper, fuel oil, and sugar at the daily and three intraday sampling frequencies. We adopt popular volatility models in the literature and assess the forecasts obtained via these models against alternative proxies for the true volatility. Our results suggest that the long memory property is an essential feature in the commodity futures volatility dynamics and that the ARFIMA model consistently produces the best forecasts or forecasts not inferior to the best in statistical terms

Search for astronomical neutrinos from blazar TXS 0506+056 in super-kamiokande

We report a search for astronomical neutrinos in the energy region from several GeV to TeV in the direction of the blazar TXS 0506+056 using the Super-Kamiokande detector following the detection of a 100 TeV neutrinos from the same location by the IceCube collaboration. Using Super-Kamiokande neutrino data across several data samples observed from 1996 April to 2018 February we have searched for both a total excess above known backgrounds across the entire period as well as localized excesses on smaller timescales in that interval. No significant excess nor significant variation in the observed event rate are found in the blazar direction. Upper limits are placed on the electron- and muon-neutrino fluxes at the 90% confidence level as 6.0 × 10−7 and 4.5 × 10−7–9.3 × 10−10 [erg cm−2 s−1], respectively

'HepCheck Dublin': An Intensified Hepatitis C Screening Programme in a Homeless Population Demonstrates the Need for Alternative Models of Care

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the main causes of chronic liver disease worldwide. Prevalence of HCV in homeless populations ranges from 3.9% to 36.2%. The HepCheck study sought to investigate and establish the characterisation of HCV burden among individuals who attended an intensified screening programme for HCV in homeless services in Dublin, Ireland. Methods: The HepCheck study was conducted as part of a larger European wide initiative called HepCare Europe. The study consisted of three phases; 1) all subjects completed a short survey and were offered a rapid oral HCV test; 2) a convenience sample of HCV positive participants from phase 1 were selected to complete a survey on health and social risk factors and 3) subjects were tracked along the referral pathway to identify whether they were referred to a specialist clinic, attended the specialist clinic, were assessed for cirrhosis by transient elastography (Fibroscan) and were treated for HCV. Results: 597 individuals were offered HCV screening, 73% were male and 63% reported having had a previous HCV screening. We screened 538 (90%) of those offered screening, with 37% testing positive. Among those who tested positive, 112 (56%) were ‘new positives’ and 44% were ‘known positives’. Undiagnosed HCV was prevalent in 19% of the study sample. Active past 30-day drug use was common, along with attendance for drug treatment. Unstable accommodation was the most common barrier to attending specialist appointments and accessing treatment. Depression and anxiety, dental problems and respiratory conditions were common reported health problems. 46 subjects were referred to specialised services and two subjects completed HCV treatment. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the current hospital-based model of care is inadequate in addressing the specific needs of a homeless population and emphasises the need for a community-based treatment approach. Findings are intended to inform HepCare Europe in their development of a community-based model of care in order to engage with homeless individuals with multiple co-morbidities including substance abuse, who are affected by or infected with HCV

"You have to get wet to learn how to swim" applied to bridging the gap between research into personnel scheduling and its implementation in practice

Personnel scheduling problems have attracted research interests for several decades. They have been considerably changed over time, accommodating a variety of constraints related to legal and organisation requirements, part-time staff, flexible hours of staff, staff preferences, etc. This led to a myriad of approaches developed for solving personnel scheduling problems including optimisation, meta-heuristics, artificial intelligence, decision-support, and also hybrids of these approaches. However, this still does not imply that this research has a large impact on practice and that state-of-the art models and algorithms are widely in use in organisations. One can find a reasonably large number of software packages that aim to assist in personnel scheduling. A classification of this software based on its purpose will be proposed, accompanied with a discussion about the level of support that this software offers to schedulers. A general conclusion is that the available software, with some exceptions, does not benefit from the wealth of developed models and methods. The remaining of the paper will provide insights into some characteristics of real-world scheduling problems that, in the author’s opinion, have not been given a due attention in the personnel scheduling research community yet and which could contribute to the enhancement of the implementation of research results in practice. Concluding remarks are that in order to bridge the gap that still exists between research into personnel scheduling and practice, we need to engage more with schedulers in practice and also with software developers; one may say we need to get wet if we want to learn how to swim

Stabilization of ribozyme-like cis-noncoding rRNAs induces apoptotic and nonapoptotic death in lung cells

Bidirectional non-protein-coding RNAs are ubiquitously transcribed from the genome. Convergent sense and antisense transcripts may regulate each other. Here, we examined the convergent cis-noncoding rRNAs (nc-rRNAs) in A5 and E9 lung cancer models. Sense nc-rRNAs extending from rDNA intergenic region to internal transcribed spacer of around 10 kb in length were identified. nc-rRNAs in sense direction exhibited in vitro characteristics of ribozymes, namely, degradation upon incubation with MgCl2 and stabilization by complementary oligonucleotides. Detection of endogenous cleavage-ligation products carrying internal deletion of hundreds to thousands nucleotides by massively parallel sequencing confirmed the catalytic properties. Transfection of oligonucleotides pairing with antisense nc-rRNAs stabilized both target and complementary transcripts, perturbed rRNA biogenesis, and induced massive cell death via apoptotic and/or nonapoptotic mechanisms depending on cell type and treatment. Oligonucleotides targeting cellular sense transcripts are less responsive. Spontaneously detached cells, though rare, also showed accumulation of nc-rRNAs and perturbation of rRNA biogenesis. Direct participation of nc-rRNAs in apoptotic and nonapoptotic death was demonstrated by transfection of synthetic nc-rRNAs encompassing the rDNA promoter. In sum, convergent cis-nc-rRNAs follow a feed-forward mechanism to regulate each other and rRNA biogenesis. This opens an opportunity to disrupt rRNA biogenesis, commonly upregulated in cancers, via inhibition of ribozyme-like activities in nc-rRNAs

Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review

This article is fully open access and the published version is available free of charge from the jounal website.http://www.malariajournal.com/content/14/1/343Background Although Plasmodium falciparum transmission frequently exhibits seasonal patterns, the drivers of malaria seasonality are often unclear. Given the massive variation in the landscape upon which transmission acts, intra-annual fluctuations are likely influenced by different factors in different settings. Further, the presence of potentially substantial inter-annual variation can mask seasonal patterns; it may be that a location has “strongly seasonal” transmission and yet no single season ever matches the mean, or synoptic, curve. Accurate accounting of seasonality can inform efficient malaria control and treatment strategies. In spite of the demonstrable importance of accurately capturing the seasonality of malaria, data required to describe these patterns is not universally accessible and as such localized and regional efforts at quantifying malaria seasonality are disjointed and not easily generalized. Methods The purpose of this review was to audit the literature on seasonality of P. falciparum and quantitatively summarize the collective findings. Six search terms were selected to systematically compile a list of papers relevant to the seasonality of P. falciparum transmission, and a questionnaire was developed to catalogue the manuscripts. Results and discussion 152 manuscripts were identified as relating to the seasonality of malaria transmission, deaths due to malaria or the population dynamics of mosquito vectors of malaria. Among these, there were 126 statistical analyses and 31 mechanistic analyses (some manuscripts did both). Discussion Identified relationships between temporal patterns in malaria and climatological drivers of malaria varied greatly across the globe, with different drivers appearing important in different locations. Although commonly studied drivers of malaria such as temperature and rainfall were often found to significantly influence transmission, the lags between a weather event and a resulting change in malaria transmission also varied greatly by location. Conclusions The contradicting results of studies using similar data and modelling approaches from similar locations as well as the confounding nature of climatological covariates underlines the importance of a multi-faceted modelling approach that attempts to capture seasonal patterns at both small and large spatial scales. Keywords: Plasmodium falciparum ; Seasonality; Climatic driversAcknowledgements This work was supported by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. DLS is funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1110495), which also supports RCR. PMA is grateful to the University of Utrecht for supporting him with The Belle van Zuylen Chair. PWG is a Career Development Fellow (K00669X) jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and receives support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1068048, OPP1106023)